The Brexit Power Vacuum

unionjacklampThe globe is undergoing a seismic shock at the moment. As I wrote previously, the world has changed utterly. Much of the UK population seem to be exhibiting signs of collective trauma – they are angry, bewildered and fearful about the future. All the old certainties have disappeared overnight.

At the same time you have a political power vacuum as both the main British parties have gone into complete meltdown.

British politicians and parties are more concerned about protecting their careers and maximising their electoral success. They have completely lost sight of the big picture.

Events are slipping away from them. Instead, it’s business as usual for political figures who do not really appeared to have grasped that the world has shifted under their feet.

This is an extremely dangerous time.

Right now, the panic is contained. But this situation may not last for long. The continuing uncertainty about the future direction of the UK is absolutely toxic. Time is not on the UK’s side. Big decisions need to be made and policies formed immediately.

The longer this British power vacuum lasts, the greater the panic it may produce. Once it reaches a certain point then other countries and institutions will be forced into adopting positions in order to protect their own interests. All other options will have been removed from the table.

This will not only be bad for Britain but intervention like this will undermine the democratic values of the European Union. We all need those to survive intact after this crisis has passed.

For other governments and institutions, the immediate need to deal with the crisis will trump any consideration about the potential long term consequences of decisions made in haste.

In the middle of a massive crisis situation like this the horizon shrinks. Everything is devoted to surviving today. Tomorrow is an eternity away. Next year does not even exist.

Right now there is a window where there is the ability to calm things down. Cool heads need to prevail. The UK needs to produce a credible leader fast and formulate some sort of policy. Right now. It needs to strike a deal with the EU and bring a degree of certainty to the whole Brexit aftermath. If it does this soon it will retain some ability to control events and salvage something from this mess.

The longer the period of uncertainty goes on, the more corrosive it will become and the weaker the UK’s position will be.

If the UK does not act quickly then it will have no choice but to accept whatever policies are dictated to it by others.

That would be the worst possible outcome from all the bad options available.

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